Japan Inbound Capital Intelligence · Capital Flow Snapshot
Capital Flow Snapshot
| Metric | Value | Source | Investor Implication |
|---|---|---|---|
| Kobayashi Pharmaceutical — reported deal size / implied floor / 28 Sep close | >¥500bn / ~¥6,726 (+14.3%) / ¥6,920 | Bloomberg JP, 2026-09-24; Yahoo Finance chart | Market already prices above the reported size |
| Oasis at Kobayashi | 14.41%; cost ~¥5,472/share | EDINET S100Z130 | The price-setting block |
| NSSK IV final close | ¥250bn, 100-plus LPs | NSSK, 2026-04-01 | Domestic partner half the size of the deal |
| Kakaku.com — EQT live / Bain-LY proposal / close | ¥3,680 to 29 Sep / ¥3,597, ¥3,720 with KDDI / ¥3,810 | Kamgras TDnet; BCPE TDnet; Matsui | Bain's top price sits under the ¥3,754 the KDDI contract needs |
| Kakaku.com register | DG+KDDI 38.05% locked; Oasis 19.52% | EDINET S100Z210; EDINET S100YYKJ | Oasis alone would clear EQT's minimum |
| Oasis reported funds, seven ladders | ~¥452.5bn | EDINET filings; Stargira calculation [S] | Every ladder names a take-private in its purpose |
| Long-only filings, 15 Sep date | 8 up / 14 down; 6 below 5% | EDINET S100Z3M6 and batch | Selling dominates; adds concentrate in materials |
| AVI at Wacom | 19.16%; 65% payout ask | EDINET S100Z2KJ | The legal line is 30%, not 20% |
| Sankei REIT tender | ¥125,000/unit; +9.6% to NAV; to 10 Nov | TDnet, 2026-09-25 | Listed discount closed by a bid |
| TSE REIT index | −14.3% (6 Jan–24 Sep); yield 5.52% | Sankei opinion; JPX factsheet | Wrapper cheaper than the buildings |
| Tokyo used condos (Aug) | ¥112.74m, −0.2% m/m, first fall in 28 months | Tokyo Kantei | Residential peak turning |
| ETN 643A day one | Base ¥10,355; close ¥10,370; ¥788m traded | JPX; Kabutan via Minkabu | A supply-chain proxy, not a rent proxy |
| BOJ policy rate / Fed range | 1.25% (7–2) / 3.75–4.00% | BOJ; Fed | No date for the next BOJ move |
| Leveraged funds, net yen (futures and options) | +20,069 → +4,472 contracts (−78%) | CFTC TFF | Fast money left the long-yen trade |
| USD hedge carry (3-month forward) | ~2.9% a year received | FXEmpire; Stargira calculation | Hedging pays a dollar buyer |
| 10-year JGB (MOF close) | 3.071% (25 Sep) | MOF | Higher domestic discount rate |
| FEFTA prior notifications FY2025 | 3,401; 67% cleared in two weeks (79% prior year) | MOF Annual Report | Screening is slower; budget 30 days |
| Overseas funds using FSA entry office | 44 (Jan–Sep 2026) vs 10 (2022), per Nikkei | Nikkei Asia | The entry route is being built |
Disclaimer: Japan Inbound Capital Intelligence is published for general information and education only. It is not investment advice, and it is not an offer, solicitation or recommendation to buy, sell or hold any financial instrument, nor an invitation to engage in any investment activity. Nothing in it takes account of any reader's circumstances, objectives or needs. Figures and sources are believed accurate at the dates shown, but completeness and continuing accuracy are not guaranteed. Take your own professional advice before acting on anything here.