Japan Inbound Capital Intelligence · Capital Flow Snapshot
Capital Flow Snapshot
| Metric | Value | Source | Investor Implication |
|---|---|---|---|
| Ares JDP V final close | ¥612bn (~US$4bn) at hard cap; ¥1.7tn capacity incl. debt; ¥450bn committed | Ares, 2026-08-31 | Largest Japan-only real-estate fund in the sponsor's history closed into a 3% JGB; the vintage is shut |
| CPP Investments cornerstone | ¥150bn (~US$968m), ~24.5% of JDP V; ¥110bn in JDP IV | Ares, 2026-08-31 | Pension development cheque stepping up by vintage |
| Tokyo bayside logistics expected yield vs 10y JGB | 3.8% flat for five surveys; spread ~304bp (Apr 2024) → ~149bp (Apr 2026) → ~81bp (1 Sep) | JREI, 2026-05; Stargira calculation [S] | Exit cap rates have not moved yet; the October survey is the first test |
| Keppel DC REIT — Tokyo DC 4 & 5 | ¥190.0bn (100% basis), 2.1% below ¥194.0bn JLL valuation; 57% yen debt at 2.7% | Keppel DC REIT, 2026-09-01 | First listed exit for foreign hyperscale capital in Japan, near appraised value |
| Kakaku.com — EQT live offer / Bain-LY proposal / close | ¥3,571 (to 10 Sep) / ¥3,520, ¥3,640 with KDDI / ¥3,691 on 8 Sep | Kamgras TDnet, 2026-08-27; Matsui | Market above both bids; the register, not the price, decides |
| eSOL MBO (Bain) | ¥820, 12.30% below prior close, ~¥14bn; closes 19 Oct | M&A Online, 2026-09-01 | Pre-leak price accepted as base; discount TOBs are now deliverable |
| Nikkon take-private (Bain vs Lone Star) | Market cap ¥665bn ($4.2bn); close ¥5,112; June high ¥6,689 | Bloomberg via Japan Times, 2026-09-03 | Bid may land below market; Farallon 23% + Oasis 17.67% can block |
| SEED TOB (Luxshare) | ¥795, 47.77% premium, ~¥12.32bn; end state 49/51 | SEED TDnet, 2026-08-26 | A year of FEFTA consultation and a carve-out is the price of clearance |
| TSE delistings confirmed for 2026 | 128 as of 4 Sep vs 125 in all of 2025; 29 more under supervision | 日本経済新聞, 2026-09-06 | Third straight record; take-private supply keeps growing |
| Oasis — SMS / en / IIJ | 24.65% / 13.45% / 9.07% | EDINET S100YZT5, S100Z0IU | Take-private asks on file at SMS and en; IIJ parked |
| 3D — J. Front Retailing | 10.32% (11.18% of votes); investment property ¥177.2bn book vs ¥314.4bn fair value | EDINET S100Z0WW; J. Front 有報 | Written proposals planned; the asset-separation thesis is on record |
| Berkshire — five trading houses | Cost $15.4bn, value $35.4bn, 2025 dividends $862m; yen debt $14.9bn at 1.2% | Berkshire 2025 Annual Report | ~5.6% dividend yield on cost vs 1.2% funding: the carry survives a 3% JGB [S] |
| Japan hotel transactions H1 2026 | $1.9bn, +75% y/y; APAC $6.8bn | JLL, 2026-07-21 | Largest APAC hotel market; deals closing outside central Tokyo |
| Bonds maturing at 30 surveyed issuers, Sep 2026–Aug 2028 | ¥6.74tn; Toyota and Tohoku Electric: >30% higher interest on refinancing | Bloomberg survey via Japan Times, 2026-09-03 | Cross-shareholding sales now have a coupon motive (single-origin figure) |
| Buyback authorisations Jan–May 2026 | ¥16.2tn, +34%, record for the period | 日本経済新聞, 2026-06-23 | Issuers absorb part of every block sold |
| USD/JPY (ECB reference) | 160.16 (1 Sep) → 154.30 (8 Sep); 152.89 intraday | ECB via frankfurter; Reuters | Cheap-yen entry leg gone in a week |
| 10y / 2y JGB (MOF close) | 3.006% (2 Sep) / 1.852% (7 Sep) | MOF | Domestic hurdle rate is real for the first time in 30 years |
| BOJ September hike probability | 98% (swaps); ~75bp by Apr 2027 | Reuters via Investing.com; HSBC via FXStreet | The hike is in the price; the path after is the trade |
| USD investor hedge carry (estimate) | ~+2.65% a year received (SOFR 3.65% − BOJ 1.00%) | Stargira calculation [S] | Hedging now pays; unhedged yen exposure is a bet, not a discount |
| FX intervention Jul–Aug / reserve securities drawdown | ¥15,399.3bn; securities −$87.8bn in August | MOF | The market did in a week what ¥15.4tn of official buying could not [S] |
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