Private Credit & Infrastructure Intelligence · Data Snapshot
Senior lenders raise from a few cheques; everyone says they want more
This week's filings show new private credit money going to established senior lenders through a few large cheques.
>>> This week's filings show new private credit money going to established senior lenders through a few large cheques. Surveys say everyone wants more private assets at once, which is Clearwater's crowding warning.
A. Market data
| Metric | Value | Change | Source | Significance |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Global private credit AUM | $3.5tn | — | AIMA / ACC, Dec 2025 | The denominator behind any "AI share" of the market |
| US non-listed alternatives fundraising, Jan–Aug | $119.0bn | −13% y/y | Stanger, 23 Sep | Money is reallocating inside alternatives, not leaving |
| — of which credit strategies | $38.7bn | −47% y/y | Stanger, 23 Sep | The wealth channel's retreat from US credit wrappers |
| — of which infrastructure | $20.2bn | +65% y/y | Stanger, 23 Sep | Where the retreating money went |
| — of which real estate | $18.8bn | +16% y/y | Stanger, 23 Sep | Recovering, but slower than infrastructure |
| — of which everything else, incl. private equity, venture capital and multi-strategy | $41.4bn | about +15% y/y, our arithmetic | Stanger, 23 Sep | Stanger does not split buyouts from VC; the release gives only the credit, infrastructure and real-estate lines |
| Non-AI senior direct loans, middle market, Q2 | SOFR+475–550bp; all-in yield 9.00–9.75% | ~25bp wider than year-end | Valuation Research Corp | The benchmark for the Firmus AI pricing below |
| Average new-issue spread, 2025: private credit vs syndicated leveraged loans | SOFR+500 vs SOFR+400 | — | Federal Reserve (FEDS Notes, 11 Aug) | The ~100bp premium private lenders earn |
| NAV BDC Q3 redemption requests (13 funds) | $9.6bn; 10.1% of NAV | from 11.2% in Q2 | Stanger, 24 Sep | Easing, but still double the usual 5% cap |
| Fitch US private credit default rate (TTM) | 6.3% | from 6.1% in July | Fitch via Benzinga, 14 Sep | A record, mostly soft defaults |
| KBRA middle-market default monitor | 3.5% | from 3.4% | KBRA, 24 Sep | Counts lender intervention as default |
| Lincoln "bad PIK" (PIK added after closing) | 6.2% of loans | from 5.9% in Q1 | Lincoln International, 13 Aug | A "shadow default rate" |
| MSCI Global Private Credit Closed-End Fund Index, Q2 | +1.7% | Q1 +0.9% | MSCI, 23 Sep | Calm reported returns above rising amendments |
| Senior vs mezzanine GPU debt (Firmus, indicative) | SOFR+275 / SOFR+725 | — | Bloomberg, 23 Sep | ~450bp for sitting second in an AI deal |
| Insured credit, indicative (Aegon, June) | 6m EURIBOR+215bp; 4.9% in EUR | — | Aegon AM | What insurer protection costs in yield |
| Credit secondaries volume, H1 2026 | $20.4bn | more than double H1 2025 | Evercore, July | Exits are being manufactured at scale |
| Manager-led vs investor-led credit secondary pricing | ~99% of fair value vs 89% of NAV | investor-led from 91% | Evercore; Jefferies | The price of an exit depends on who runs it |
| Deployment: Cheyne CRECH IX | >50% of £3bn deployed | — | ACI, 23 Sep | Largest private credit close in this edition's harvest |
| US 10-year Treasury (close) | 5.17%, 25 Sep | 4.73% on 28 Aug | US Treasury; FRED | Borrowers' refinancing base |
| SOFR | 3.90%, 25 Sep | 3.62% on 16 Sep | FRED (NY Fed) | Floating coupons reset up; so do borrowers' bills |
B. Form D ledger — who is buying what
This ledger is a sample, not a count. Private funds filed about 840 Form Ds a week in Q2 2026, roughly 45 of them for funds with credit, lending or debt in their names, on our count of the SEC's Form D data sets. The table below shows the ten that matter most from this week's harvest. Even the full Form D record misses money. Only US offerings made under Regulation D must file. Offshore sales under Regulation S, and registered funds such as non-traded BDCs, never appear. Filing is not a condition of the exemption, so some funds file late or not at all. And a fund updates its figures only in its annual amendment, so a number can be up to a year old.
Three reading rules. Form D "amount sold" counts commitments, including capital not yet called, from the start of the offering to the filing date. It is gross of redemptions. Rows are not additive.
| Vehicle | New / amended | Amount sold | Investors | First sale | Significance |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| New Mountain Guardian V (Unlevered, Levered, Feeder) | Amended ×3 | $861.5m, one family total | 1 / 4 / 18 | 3 Oct 2025 | Raised from $0 in about a year; do not add the three filings |
| Blue Owl Capital Senior Diversified Lending Fund I (USD) SCSp | Amended | $650.0m | 5 | 15 Oct 2025 | Luxembourg senior lending, institutional scale |
| Blue Owl Senior Diversified Lending Fund I (EUR) SCSp | Amended | $23.6m | 3 | 15 Oct 2025 | Reported separately; overlap with USD vehicle unknown |
| Kirkoswald EM Private Credit Fund 4 | New | $90.0m | 2 | 11 Sep 2026 | Emerging-market credit niche; $100,000 minimum |
| Meridiam Infrastructure North America Fund II (Feeder) II | New | $76.7m, fully sold | 3 | 4 Sep 2026 | Infrastructure feeder filled |
| Abacus Finance SBIC Fund I | New | $37.5m | 44 | 4 Sep 2026 | Rule 506(c): may market publicly to verified accredited investors |
| Bluebird SBIC Fund | Amended | $0 of $175m | 0 | Yet to occur | Nothing sold since its June filing |
| Graycliff Mezzanine V (SBIC) | New | $0 | 0 | Yet to occur | Marketing period, not a close |
| Diameter Lending Fund II / II RNF | New ×2 | $0 | 0 | Yet to occur | "RNF" likely a rated-note feeder; not confirmed |
An SBIC is a fund licensed by the US Small Business Administration that can borrow up to twice its private capital with government-guaranteed debt.
C. Surveys
Clearwater Analytics surveyed 250 senior asset-management executives in April and May. 90% expect to move further into alternatives within three years, and 79% expect to expand hedging. Mid-sized managers ($5bn–$50bn) are keenest, at 94%. Liquidity (47%) and credit (46%) already rank among their top risk concerns. Clearwater's warning: "The trades are individually sensible; the concern is that everyone is making them at once, which leaves the industry more correlated, not less."
Invesco surveyed 517 US defined-contribution savers in April. 65% said they would be interested in a target-date fund with a modest private-markets allocation, offered at an added 0.15% a year.
Sources: note 11.
For Wealth Managers: Read Form D numbers as commitments, not invested money, and never add parallel filings. The one wealth-shaped raise is Abacus, $37.5m from 44 investors under a rule that allows public marketing. SBA leverage raises both the yield and the loss sensitivity; compare levered SBIC yields with unlevered senior funds only after adjusting for that.
For Fund Managers: The pattern is a barbell. Large senior franchises and specialist niches raise. Two of the three SBIC filings, and Diameter's two new vehicles, report no sales yet. Two channels are opening side by side: US retirement savers who say they would pay for private-markets sleeves, and 506(c) direct marketing. Neither appears in this week's big-ticket raises, which remain institutional.
→ The capital that moved this week went to a handful of senior-lending families; the surveys describe demand everyone shares, which is what makes it crowded.
Sources
[11] Data Snapshot. SEC Form D instructions; SEC Form D data sets — Q2 2026; SEC Form D FAQ; Stanger — 2026-09-23; Valuation Research Corp — 2026; Federal Reserve, FEDS Notes — 2026-08-11; New Mountain Guardian V (Unlevered) — 2026-09-25; New Mountain Guardian V (Levered) — 2026-09-25; New Mountain Guardian V Feeder — 2026-09-25; Blue Owl SDLF I (USD) — 2026-09-25; Blue Owl SDLF I (EUR) — 2026-09-25; Kirkoswald EM Private Credit Fund 4 — 2026-09-23; Abacus Finance SBIC Fund I — 2026-09-21; Graycliff Mezzanine V (SBIC) — 2026-09-21; Bluebird SBIC Fund — 2026-09-22; Meridiam Infrastructure North America Fund II (Feeder) II — 2026-09-21; US SBA (SBICs); Clearwater Analytics, "The Crowded Trade" — 2026; Invesco DC Pulse — 2026-09; Invesco via PR Newswire — 2026-09-21; Private Markets Insights — 2026-09-26; Alternative Credit Investor (Cheyne) — 2026-09-23; IPE Real Assets (Cheyne) — 2026-09-24
Disclaimer: Private Credit & Infrastructure Intelligence is published for general information and education only. It is not investment advice, and it is not an offer, solicitation or recommendation to buy, sell or hold any financial instrument, nor an invitation to engage in any investment activity. Nothing in it takes account of any reader's circumstances, objectives or needs. Figures and sources are believed accurate at the dates shown, but completeness and continuing accuracy are not guaranteed. Take your own professional advice before acting on anything here.